Fred Giron at Forrester has a provocatively titled post out Is This The End Of India’s IT Services Success Story?
Thankfully it is not the end. Once you get past the title, Giron’s post itself does not point to a doomsday. And I doubt that his eventual research note on this subject will either. Mostly because it just isn’t true.
Giron describes the impact of IP based Solutions on the industry as ‘transformational’ and even ‘disruptive’. I think we can safely say that it will not disrupt the industry. At least not in the new-business-model-hollows-out-old-business-model sense that Clayton Christensen used the word.
I don’t even think that it will be very transformational.
The composition of revenue in the IT Services industry changes slowly. While the frontier along which value is created and companies compete, shifts quickly, the bulk of the revenue will still come from a set of slowly commoditizing services. IP-based Solutions will form that frontier but there will be other services there as well. And while the action will be thick on the frontier, requiring new skills and capabilities, back in the heartland, it will be business as usual.
What that means is that even though there may be great value created by IP based Solutions it will take a long, long time before it has any effect, if at all, on the growth rates or employment generation by the industry.
In our book we take a pretty close look at the challenges faced by the Indian IT Services industry from commoditizing services and rising client expectations and do some prognostication of our own.
In a chapter called “The Quest for Higher Bill Rates” we closely examine the different ways a Solution can create value for the clients and the service provider. Also, what does it take for a service provider to be successful at selling Solutions.
In another chapter “New New Thing” we take a look at the trends in Enterprise IT – Cloud, Big Data among others – and their impact on the industry, both negative and positive.
The central problem to solve for the industry is how to stave off commoditization. The solution to this problem, in one word, is Innovation. Sometimes innovation will come in the form of IP-based Solutions. Sometimes it will be in the form of a new Service, say marketing services for pharmaceutical companies. And sometimes it may be a new way to serve a certain market (Japan, anyone?)