My Wish “Less” for 2011

A very happy new year to my readers.

A couple of years ago I had posted a New Year’s Wish “Less”. Instead of a Wish List, which is mostly about wishing for things that you don’t have, I thought that I would ask for less of things that we have too much of. (no money is not one of those things!)

Fewer natural disasters in parts of the world that can’t handle them

Haiti

Less irresponsible government spending

One word – Greece

Less than 24 hours of news coverage from 24 hour news channels

If they can’t do that then can we get them to have fewer talking heads on the screen at the same time. CNBC, I’m talking to you.

Fewer pages in the US Tax Code

Unfortunately, every change that is deficit neutral, hurts somebody who goes and lobbies their senator who filibusters until the bill is killed. Either that or the tax accountants will kill it. Simplification reduces billings. Hmmm…that’s true about IT Services too.

Less complexity in our cell phone bills, banking fees, utility bills…

I eagerly await Bank Simple

Fewer Amitabh Bachhan ads

I propose a public service ad that has Amitabh Bachhan say “I endorse all products sold by all manufacturers”. The ad loops from 2am to 4am on all TV channels. When we want to see Big B, we go to the movies. Oh wait, when did he do his last movie?

And while we are on the subject of TV ads, can we have fewer ad minutes per programming minute in India?

Less disrespect for its readers from Times of India group websites

ET and ToI start video ads with sound, as soon as you land on the website. On the other hand, I click less and less on links from ToI.

Less corruption in India

It’s not like I am hopeful or anything, but this is a Wish List after all.

Less religion in politics. Less religion in education.

Leave science alone.

My personal resolve for 2011

Spend less time with the Web of Infinite Information and more time with friends and family.

@labnol’s resolve for 2011

…type less and spend more time with speech recognition…

Week’s Tweets 2011-01-02

Looking for Investment Management Tools

I have been looking for any personal finance software that can help keep track of my investments. So far, I have come up with zip. Maybe someone else has had a better experience.

Here is what I am looking for:

  1. Syncs transactions with brokerage accounts.
  2. Allows looking at performance on a consolidated basis across accounts. I own a few stocks across multiple accounts. I want to look at how on a consolidated basis.
  3. Includes dividends and reinvested dividends intelligently into calculating performance.
  4. Allows XIRR calculations by security. XIRR immediately shortens the list. Total gain/loss on a stock is not a very interesting number.
  5. Ideally, I should be able to take any window of time to see how a stock has performed in that window. Also, of course, on a consolidated basis.

Schwab, of course, has nothing even close. They are so scared of making errors that they throw up a warning window every time I try to download a csv file. Can’t trust them to venture out this far.

I like mint.com for keeping track of expenses etc. but their investment management totally sucks. Pretty charts that are all horribly wrong, worthless or both.

A friend told me that Quicken takes care of all of these requirements. Unfortunately, Quicken gives the Mac platform short shrift. The last version for the Mac is from 2007 and the reviews are not good. No 30 day trial, so I passed. If someone has used this version and thinks it works, leave a comment.

iBank from iggsoft was supposed solve this very problem. The poor cousin treatment that Mac owners get on software for personal use. Tried it out. Couldn’t even set it up. No way to upload a csv! At least I couldn’t figure it out. For the transactions I could upload it seemed like it didn’t meet my criteria.

So my search continues. In the meanwhile, I put together a Google Spreadsheets solution, which meets all my criteria, except the windowing. Google allows you to call the price on a stock as a formula which is quite neat. The only problem with this is that transactions must be downloaded from the brokerage account and cut pasted into the worksheet every once in a while. I don’t trade much, so my solution works for me, kind of. At least until someone comes up with exactly what I want. But does that ever happen?

The Cloud and Infrastructure Management Services

Infrastructure Management Services or IMS is one of the fastest growing services for IT Services companies. But computing infrastructure is what the Cloud will impact first and foremost. Is the fast growing IMS in jeopardy, then?

There are good reasons why the Cloud is a big trend. Enterprise IT loves the pay per use, “utility” model of provisioning computing power and storage. The infrastructure and the headache of managing it, both belong to someone else. Someone who can drive down costs tremendously through scale and automation in a way that the company on its own, never can.

But there are issues too. Since data will be outside the company firewall, information security is a big issue. Also, there are billions of dollars invested in data center infrastructure. Its all very well to say convert your investments into variable costs, but whose going to take those investments off the company’s hands? Not the cloud services vendor. In the meanwhile, virtualization technology like VMWare’s is helping companies achieve some of those savings in house.

The migration to cloud infrastructure is going to be gradual. Startups who don’t have anything invested will go straight to Amazon Web Services or a similar provider. But big business, which is where IT Services companies get the lion’s share of their revenues from, will take its time in migrating to the cloud.

Change is always an opportunity for a services company. Whether a company wants to try out the Cloud or implement a “Private Cloud” in house, they need advice and migration services.

Traditional IMS may also see a boost in the short term. A Fortune 1000 company may not shift much of its infrastructure to the Cloud, but between that and implementing a Private Cloud, the change will be significant – the pain of which they may decide is not worth bearing themselves. Often, this will lead to outsourcing decisions.

In the long-term how will the Cloud impact the IMS opportunity? There are some reasons to be concerned, but on balance, the impact will be positive.

The Cloud, by definition, reduces the workload on infrastructure management. But Private clouds retain a lot of the infrastructure management workload of legacy data centers. And as we have noted earlier, it will take many years before large companies will completely jettison their data centers, which will also need to be managed. Thus, the addressable space for IMS will shrink, but gradually.

While the pie might shrink somewhat, the slice of the pie that IMS gets could increase rapidly. Infrastructure management has been one of the laggards in the offshore services world. Some of it was because it required significant investments in NOCs (Network Operations Centers) by service providers, which slowed down progress. But it was also because clients have been less eager to offshore. The risk-benefit tradeoff for IMS is not as good as it is for Application Services. New technologies like virtualization will reduce the risk of outsourcing critical infrastructure management. The Cloud might just be the catalyst that gets more companies to outsource more aggressively.

But while there is opportunity ahead in IMS, service providers will have to change directions to take advantage of it. An advisory service to help clients understand the costs and benefits of migrating to the Cloud and/or a Private Cloud, should help position the service provider early in the decision cycle. A Private Cloud implementation and ongoing management service could be a money spinner, if not immediately, perhaps in a year or two (for which one would have to be offering it right now). In the future, there could be opportunities to resell third-party white-label Public Cloud services with a layer of IT management tools, although margins here are likely to be slim.

Photo Credit Kevin Dooley

Another Trip to the Cookie Jar

In August Congress passed a bill to fund enhanced border security which is now Public Law 111-230. The funding for this bill was achieved by increasing the visa fees for H-1B and L-1 visas by $2,000. The fees apply selectively to companies who employ more than 50 employees in the US and if 50% or more of those employees are not US citizens or permanent residents.

The bill was weird and wicked in multiple ways. It increased fees for companies conducting legitimate business for purposes completely unconnected with their business. And it was constructed cleverly so that American businesses would not be affected. Which meant that not only would Microsoft and Intel not pay the higher fees, IBM and Accenture, who are in the same business of offshore services that Infosys and Cognizant are in, would also not pay them. Indian companies had been surgically targeted.

As if that wasn’t enough, in the 9/11 Health Care Bill (scrolls to fees) the same fees, which were imposed for 4 years in PL 111-230 have been extended another year. It was easy. Like taking candy from a child.

When I wrote about the Borders Bill, I made light of it. Financially, it is not a big burden for companies. An extra $2,000 paid a couple of times over a six year work permit is less than a 1% uptick in costs. It is not going to even affect margins, leave alone changing the value prop. But the precedent this sets is wrong and dangerous to both India and the US. It needs to be called out.

While the bill doesn’t talk about Indian offshore services companies explicitly, there is no doubt that they were the target. American lawmakers regularly beat up American businesses that “outsource American jobs to India and China”. In these hard times, they are tapping into the angst that high unemployment creates. But they should know better.

Offshore outsourcing is trade. When Ricardo talked about the law of Comparative Advantage, he did not exclude outsourcing from it. Trade brings benefits to the both countries. It may be harder to picture the benefits that the US gets from outsourcing but it does nonetheless. It lowers the costs of goods and services to consumers. It makes American businesses more efficient and more competitive in the global market. As outsourcing creates prosperity in India and China, they consume more American goods. And so on.

Which is why when the US has constantly preached to developing countries like India to open their markets, it has received the support of economists everywhere. Trade is good for the world. All of it, including outsourcing.

But if it is too much to ask lawmakers to guide their actions based upon sound economic principles, then I’d ask them to do it in their own interest. There are very few US companies who would support legislators that targeted Indian companies. Not just because they like how Indian services companies make them more efficient. But because India is one of the few large growth markets in the world today. No company wants their own government to hobble their attempts to get the best access to this market.

So far, both bills put together don’t amount to much. But as in many of these things, its the optics that matter. Right now the optics are all bad – anti-outsourcing and by extension anti-India. One hopes that it stops right here.

Meanwhile, what of Indian companies? Every major company I have talked to recently has aggressive plans to increase hiring in the markets. It won’t happen overnight, but the direction is right.

Week’s Tweets 2010-12-26

  • US Census 2010 data is being released. This is the first time Asian-Indian was included as a race in the census form http://skit.ch/bb4s #
  • "Outsourcing" vs "Reengineering" Outsourcing wins! Reengineering is past its prime | Google Ngram Viewer http://t.co/hoOnRC5 #
  • A Holiday Message from Ricky Gervais: Why I'm An Atheist – Speakeasy – WSJ http://on.wsj.com/hDRyHn #
  • economic times website starts video ads as soon as you land on a page. With audio on! Fewer reasons to go to the website. #
  • Will GoogleVoice transcribe desi voices now?RT @labnol: Indian Accents and Google Voice Search http://youtu.be/i-k6aHMLdPc – Thanks @ankitv #
  • Someone Is Trading Stocks Based on Your Tweets http://bit.ly/epjrbU #
  • Why politics in India is dynastic – two words 'numbered accounts' | Indian Express http://bit.ly/hLgAoo #
  • There is insight in social media data. But is it tradable? | Felix Salman |Using Twitter to predict stock moves http://reut.rs/hl80dh #

The Problem with the Human Cloud

Last month I vented about why IT Services companies weren’t taking the lead on the Human Cloud.

I met an executive at a leading offshore company recently who explained why this was so. In the past few years, clients have become paranoid about information security. Well publicized leaks of customer data and a growing share of BPO is driving some of this. Cross company collaboration requires easier access to tools for sharing. Services companies are going the other way on information security. Employees’ internet access is heavily curtailed. Computers don’t have USB ports. And so on.

Not all clients are equally paranoid. But the service provider’s internal policy and infrastructure must support the most paranoid customer. Therein lies the problem.

This Could be the Future of the Print Media

Richard Branson launched Project, a digital magazine just for the iPad. The monthly magazine will cost $2.99 a month.

Meanwhile, Rupert Murdoch is working on an iPad only daily (newspaper) called The Daily.

In related developments, the New York Times online, which has been free thus far, will be going behind a paid wall, at least for some content in Jan 2011.

The print media has had a torrid time, the last few years. Could this be the light at the end of the tunnel?

A paid-subscription magazine on the iPad has a few things going for it. One, it looks really nice. The user experience is better than both print and the internet. A glossy should be glossy, even if it is electronic. A website can’t manage that as well. Paper magazines, on the other hand don’t use rich media – audio and video. The iPad has all of the advantages of online but none of its disadvantages. People, just might pay for it, like they pay for paper subscriptions.

If it’s a new magazine or daily and there isn’t a paper product, or a website, there are a couple of other advantages. One, you can’t get the content elsewhere through any other means, so if you want it, you pay for it. The other advantage is that you don’t have the costs of printing and distribution. And a probable third advantage is that you have a lot more control over the advertising (I think).

But there are disadvantages as well. If your magazine is electronic but is not on the internet, nobody links to your stories. Your stories don’t appear in Google News or any search results. The only way to market your magazine or news daily is the old fashioned way – advertising, PR and sampling.

FT.com, wsj.com and presumably nytimes.com are going to take an in-between position. They aren’t or won’t be completely walled gardens or free. As an unregistered reader, registered reader or paid reader you will get to read a graded number of stories per month. And Google will index the sites. And they all have or will have iPad apps as well for paid subscribers.

The print media is being deconstructed and put back together in front of our eyes. It is fascinating. I believe we will end up having a whole spectrum of models that will co-exist. Higher quality journalism will go behind pay walls in some fashion. And that is how it should be. If you want to read stuff written by smart people, you have to pay for it. Also, if you want investigative journalism to offer some checks and balances in our democracies.