Comments on: Stopping Climate Change Needs Short Term Targets http://6ampacific.com/2008/07/19/stopping-climate-change-needs-short-term-targets/ Basab Pradhan's weblog about business and life in a 'flat world'. 6 AM Pacific is the best time for a global conference call. Thu, 20 Nov 2008 21:27:42 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.3 By: saurabh http://6ampacific.com/2008/07/19/stopping-climate-change-needs-short-term-targets/#comment-14596 saurabh Mon, 21 Jul 2008 22:41:04 +0000 http://6ampacific.com/?p=193#comment-14596 Al Gore's goal might be clearly stated but it is not clearly understood. It is akin to saying "put 10000 men on the moon". I understand what it means but question is: Why? How? If 50% was too modest, 2018 is too aggressive bordering absurdity. The most ambitious solar plant under construction today will produce less than one third of a typical coal or nuclear plant. Even if all of the forecast growth occurs, solar energy will represent only about 3 to 6 percent of installed electricity generation capacity in 2020. Obviously, without fossil fuel, the rising demand can be truly met only thru nuclear option. That would need hundreds (even thousands) of nuclear plants requiring an investment of tens of trillions of dollars to replace all fossil electric generation as well as natural gas heating needs. Even if money is made available, one would need a magic wand to build these plants in 10 years. The need of the hour is to have a sensible policy that sets reasonably aggressive target to gradually move away from fossil fuels without hurting consumers. In short to medium term, that would mean maintaining the diverse fuel mix while investing in technology to reduce GHG emissions. Al Gore's target look achievable by throttling the economy. That is, reduce the electricity demand by curbing economic growth or asking major changes in the consumer lifestyles. In Al Gore's mind, that is probably a justifiable price to pay and I am not arguing that. Fact is, for good or for bad, that will not work in USA. And there is no need for that either. We just need to look at Germany. Al Gore’s goal might be clearly stated but it is not clearly understood. It is akin to saying “put 10000 men on the moon”. I understand what it means but question is: Why? How? If 50% was too modest, 2018 is too aggressive bordering absurdity. The most ambitious solar plant under construction today will produce less than one third of a typical coal or nuclear plant. Even if all of the forecast growth occurs, solar energy will represent only about 3 to 6 percent of installed electricity generation capacity in 2020. Obviously, without fossil fuel, the rising demand can be truly met only thru nuclear option. That would need hundreds (even thousands) of nuclear plants requiring an investment of tens of trillions of dollars to replace all fossil electric generation as well as natural gas heating needs. Even if money is made available, one would need a magic wand to build these plants in 10 years. The need of the hour is to have a sensible policy that sets reasonably aggressive target to gradually move away from fossil fuels without hurting consumers. In short to medium term, that would mean maintaining the diverse fuel mix while investing in technology to reduce GHG emissions. Al Gore’s target look achievable by throttling the economy. That is, reduce the electricity demand by curbing economic growth or asking major changes in the consumer lifestyles. In Al Gore’s mind, that is probably a justifiable price to pay and I am not arguing that. Fact is, for good or for bad, that will not work in USA. And there is no need for that either. We just need to look at Germany.

]]> By: Krishna http://6ampacific.com/2008/07/19/stopping-climate-change-needs-short-term-targets/#comment-14586 Krishna Mon, 21 Jul 2008 07:55:13 +0000 http://6ampacific.com/?p=193#comment-14586 The recovering politician, environmental activist, and Nobel laureate now also wears another tag – of a venture capitalist – a hands-on partner at KPCB, Silicon Valley's preeminent venture firm where he has a colleague in illustrious John Doerr who focuses on clean tech investments. In that context, his short term aspirations are well aligned because that is precisely the duration when VCs will want to exit. It is the time the economy likely will take to get back in shape from the depths of liquidity crisis. It might as well sync with the maturity milestones of the firms’ clean tech investments being made now, ready for exit in a rejuvenated IPO market. Till then Gore can work his old boys network in Washington to extend the tax credits to his portfolio companies to boost future earnings. You can’t obviously get smarter than that :) The recovering politician, environmental activist, and Nobel laureate now also wears another tag – of a venture capitalist – a hands-on partner at KPCB, Silicon Valley’s preeminent venture firm where he has a colleague in illustrious John Doerr who focuses on clean tech investments. In that context, his short term aspirations are well aligned because that is precisely the duration when VCs will want to exit. It is the time the economy likely will take to get back in shape from the depths of liquidity crisis. It might as well sync with the maturity milestones of the firms’ clean tech investments being made now, ready for exit in a rejuvenated IPO market. Till then Gore can work his old boys network in Washington to extend the tax credits to his portfolio companies to boost future earnings. You can’t obviously get smarter than that :)

]]> By: Anu P. Thomas http://6ampacific.com/2008/07/19/stopping-climate-change-needs-short-term-targets/#comment-14567 Anu P. Thomas Sat, 19 Jul 2008 11:41:49 +0000 http://6ampacific.com/?p=193#comment-14567 While it is clear that the commitments towards CO2 emission reductions are simply empty promises, meeting 100% of electricity requirements from renewable and carbon-free sources by 2018 is just wishful thinking. Even if it is achieved, world will not be free of oil-dependencies. Automobiles will still need them - until a modern day James Watt or Nicolaus Otto comes up something which can compete with the internal combustion engine in terms of cost, performance and convenience. And then we need oil for polymers. While it is clear that the commitments towards CO2 emission reductions are simply empty promises, meeting 100% of electricity requirements from renewable and carbon-free sources by 2018 is just wishful thinking. Even if it is achieved, world will not be free of oil-dependencies. Automobiles will still need them - until a modern day James Watt or Nicolaus Otto comes up something which can compete with the internal combustion engine in terms of cost, performance and convenience. And then we need oil for polymers.

]]> By: Subrata Majumdar http://6ampacific.com/2008/07/19/stopping-climate-change-needs-short-term-targets/#comment-14561 Subrata Majumdar Sat, 19 Jul 2008 06:44:09 +0000 http://6ampacific.com/?p=193#comment-14561 The difference between the G8 approach and the Gore approach also succinctly brings out the too-wide-consensus trap of goal setting. The G8 chaps - and I'm no fan of their leg-dragging, procrastinating style of work - had to work to create a common goal for all the member nations. Each time the span of influence for a goal increases, the goal statement becomes less purposeful and more ambivalent. This is as true for a union of nations as is for an union of divisions in a corporation. Sincerely Subrata The difference between the G8 approach and the Gore approach also succinctly brings out the too-wide-consensus trap of goal setting. The G8 chaps - and I’m no fan of their leg-dragging, procrastinating style of work - had to work to create a common goal for all the member nations. Each time the span of influence for a goal increases, the goal statement becomes less purposeful and more ambivalent. This is as true for a union of nations as is for an union of divisions in a corporation.

Sincerely
Subrata

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