Most conversation fodder however does emanate from challenging the ENC bias, I think.

Thanks.

Gopal, your point that bad news travels faster, is true, but in matters of faith (unlike the competence of doctors) skeptics hold back their skepticism. Richard Dawkins in his book “The God Delusion” decries similar behaviour from atheists who tend not to talk about their atheism thus making atheism a meme that is weak at propagation.

Krishna, I would say that my post was about the type of godmen that you call godman 2.0. Spirituality and a balanced life is an important part of the Indian culture and Hindu religion. There are gurus who preach this and it has a large following amongst rational people who see it as a better way of life.

In the academic publishing world especially in the sciences this is the phenomenon of positive publishing or ‘positivity bias’. One rarely comes across papers that negate the hypotheses which they set out testing. Not that this does not happen but such papers do not get past reviewers.

In social sciences, where the scientific methods of hypothesis structuring and data collection and analysis may be used, hypotheses are often modified as one goes along. This is of course not possible in science.

This also means that sometimes shaky hypotheses remain inadequately tested – because those chasing academic careers do not wish to appear too radical by taking on challenging tasks – while others get firmer and firmer with more weight of evidence behind them. Often the rare random voices of dissent are cruelly crushed as you may know from the strange case of Dr Arpad Pusztai and the GM potato.

In real life too, as you say people do not start negative advertising campaigns, people do not wish to stand out as too radical by questioning something that many appear to be swearing by.

You can test this on your blog by posting something that challenges the views of a majority of your reader population and see the outcome as the discussion veers from the logical to the illogical to the downright sublime territory where your readers start attacking other readers’ views.

Sounds awful? Well proves your point, does it not? Most will not even bother with the risk considering the general received wisdom says otherwise.

Thanks.

Just finished reading his latest book – The Black Swan. It is much better than ‘Fooled by Randomness’. Do read that when you are done with this.

Vinay

But where does that bias comes from? I don’t know much about failed Godmen. They vanish without a trace. But I have often thought about what makes them a hit, so much that the wealthy disciples gift them rows of Rolls Royce cars and priced real estate. That does not just count Rock stars in search of a mythical Nirvana; it adds in a fair bit of intelligentsia, some of them even sworn agnostics till then.

I manage to get a glimpse of two realms – One being, the Godman (say *GM-1.0*) offers a sanctuary where the people have no sense of fear or limitation, where they aren’t pulled down by pettiness, where they are just naturally generous and enthused about life, and engaged in making the world a better place. Most GM-1.0 are naturally good everyday people, living their lives with joy and humor, stopping to help someone with a flat tire, helping a short person reach the can of food on the top shelf at the supermarket – without being asked – and looking at the world with courage and hope. Slowly they assemble a like minded group and a *cult* forms up. Soon the cult expands, gets influential, donations pour in, builds up a huge corpus and hands it over to a trust to manage. That’s exactly when it gets political – and by extension, out of hand.

There’s another tribe (say GM-2.0) of Godmen that gets me worried. They materialize sacred ash and gold chains out of thin air, with a wave of his hand and mesmerize his disciples into faith. His brand of faith. These are the realms of expert magicians and artful dodgers. I’ve noticed the folks that run to this tribe are the ones whose lives are in chaos and literally didn’t know where to turn. Its simplicity (the visual appeal, more so!) cuts through the disciples’ intellectual arguments very quickly, touching deeper truths that their own fears were masking at that time in their lives. This traps even the staunchest rationalists at a time when so many of them are cynical about providence, yet are vulnerable and constantly searching for ways to reach deeper. GM-2.0 make it seem easy to move beyond one’s own fears, and when (s)he is able to drop their intellectual pretenses and let these sights and sounds (of incantation) in, and in that semi liberated state, something quite wonderful happens. The Godman 2.0 makes it look like it’s his `effect’ and his coterie takes over the PR part. [I think of `Miracle Life Crusade’ here]. They ensure that the disciples don’t ever see it as their state of mind that drove them move beyond their own blocks to see the larger truth. They wouldn’t let you ponder complex theological concepts but just make sure it sparks something important in your heart that compels you to reach for your wallet, or even cheque book. Something that which you confuse with GM-2.0 mediated deliverance.

BTW, his name is Nassim Taleb.